Munich, 9 August 2022 (dpa/MIA) – The Ukraine war and its consequences could cost the German economy more than €260 billion ($266 billion) by 2030, according to a study published on Tuesday by several institutes.
In the coming year, around 240,000 fewer people will be employed than if there were no war, the Institute for Labour Market and Vocational Education and Training (IAB), the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training and the Society for Economic Structural Research said.
The researchers worked under the assumption that the sanctions on Russia would remain in place until 2030, even if the war has ended by then.
“Because of the effects of the war, the post-pandemic economic upswing will fail to materialize,” Enzo Weber of the IAB said.
Increased prices for fossil fuels would be the main detrimental factor for the export economy and private consumption, the study said, adding that the hospitality industry, social services and food production would suffer major job losses.
In a scenario with energy prices rising twice as much as they are now, 660,000 fewer people will be employed in 2024 than if there were no war, the study found.